US stock market outlook – The market is poised to have an 10% pull back, and it’s healthy  

美国股市展望——市场已经准备好回调10%，但这并不是坏事 

2025 is going to be a decent year for US stock market, driven by business-friendly government policies, Fed continued cutting cycle, advancement in AI adoption, and a strong 

US economy. 

However, a lot of the above has been priced in, and volatility can pick up in the first half of 2025. 

2024 has not been too hard to pick stocks. As of 25th Dec, 71 stock in S&P 500 has been up more than 40%, 119 stocks have been up 30% or more, only 77 stocks are down 

15% or more. Pretty easy right? We don’t think 2025 is going to be as easy as 2024. 

Wall street’s consensus earnings growth expectations for S&P500 in 2025 is between 13-15%, this is compared with a c.10% earnings growth in 2024, this is a hefty 

expectation given decelerating GDP growth. Valuation is also stretched compared with historical average, at 22.5x forward earnings. 

It’s hard to expect earnings multiples to keep expanding in 2025, and if there is any earnings shock on the downside, the market can experience a meaningful pull back.

In early Dec., the Fed dramatically scaled back rate cut expectation in 2025 from 4 times to 2 times. We don’t think this is going to be a big issue as long as the Fed keeps 

cutting, and given the market has already expected an “hawkish cut”, the pull back on the day of the Fed meeting was an overaction. 

However, the biggest risk in 2025 is still inflation. Trump’s policies are inflationary from large US stock market outlook – The market is poised to have an 10% pull back, 

and it’s health  deportation of cheap labor to tariffs on US biggest trading partners. If inflation picks up, and the Fed is forced to refocused on containing inflation rather than supporting 

the economy, we think the yield will pick up a lot more from where we are today, (the 10-year yield is already 100bp higher than the Sep low), and the market will 

start to panic.

To conclude, in the last few months, we saw AI software stocks, Quantum computing stocks, and Trump trade have made a lot of investors keep asking: “what is the 

next 10x stock!?” We feel the market is complacent in taking excessive risks, and people need a reminder that the market can go down as well as going up. During 

this bull run since the end of 2022, there were 4 meaningful corrections, which S&P 500 pulled back 9-10% each time, and NASDAQ pulled back 10-13% each time. 

Today, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ weekly charts are 32% and 40% above their respective 200-day moving averages. We are technically as overbought as ever during 

this 2-year bull run. The market is poised to have a 10% pull back, and it’s healthy because the market can not purely rely on momentum chasing and lose its vigilance. 

It will set up a better 2025, which we think is also going to be a good year for stocks. 

我们预期2025年将是美股表现不错的一年，主要得益于特朗普政府对企业的友好政策、美联储持续降息周期、人工智能应用的深入以及美国经济的稳定增长。

然而，上述许多因素已经被反映在股价上，所以市场向下的波动性可能会在 2025 年上半年加剧。

在2024 年，在美国市场选股并不难。截至 12 月 25 日，标普 500 指数有 71 只股票上涨超过 40%，119 只股票上涨高于 30% ，只有 77 只股票下跌多于15% 。但我们认为这样的环境

在 2025 年不会持续。

华尔街对标普 500 指数 2025 年盈利增长的普遍预期在 13-15% 之间，相比之下，2024 年的盈利增长约为 10%。鉴于美国GDP 增长在放缓，这个预期显得有些乐观。此外，与历史平均

水平相比，市场估值也显得偏高，平均远期市盈率已经到了 22.5 倍。

所以市场不能再指望 2025 年的平均市盈率继续上升，这时如果企业盈利再不达预期，市场可能就会经历一次较大回调。

12月初，美联储大幅下调了市场对2025 年降息的预期，从 4 次降至 2 次。但只要美联储继续降息，我们认为这对市场的影响不大，而且鉴于市场已经预期美联储会在决定降息的同时，

用很保守的口吻来回答未来降息的规划，所以美联储会议当天的大幅回调是市场反应过度了。

然而，2025 年最大的风险仍然是通货膨胀。特朗普的多个政策都会导致通货膨胀走向恶化，包括大规模驱逐廉价劳动力和对美国最大的贸易伙伴们征收关税。如果通胀加剧，美联储

被迫重新将关注点放在遏制通胀，而不是支持经济增长，我们认为美债收益率将从目前的水平大幅上升（10 年期美债收益率已经比 9 月低点高出 100 个基点），股票市场也许就会

开始恐慌。

总之，在过去的几个月里，我们看到的人工智能软件股、量子计算股和特朗普概念股让很多投资者不断问：下一个 10 倍股是哪一只呢？我们认为市场正沉浸在过度追逐高风险的盛宴中，

但其实投资者需要时刻谨记，市场今天可以狂欢，明天也可以崩盘。在2022 年底以来的牛市中，出现了 4 次比较大的回调，标普 500 指数每次回调了 9-10%，纳斯达克指数每次回调

了 10-13%。从技术面上讲，今天的标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数的周线已经分别超过其 200 日均线 32% 和 40%。市场的超买状态已经达到或超出这两年牛市中，以前每次回调前的

程度。所以投资者要为下一个10%的回调做好准备，但我们认为这此回调是健康的，因为市场不能单纯依靠追逐动量交易，投资者也不能失去警惕性。这个回调将为 2025 年的市场打造

更好的基础，我们认为这也将是股市的好年头。